Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 4.292941 5.102807 6.001709 7.070302 8.302704 9.676043 11.318778
2025-05-04 3.180101 4.293845 5.668864 7.476015 9.771395 12.570975 16.222843
2025-05-11 2.359416 3.562591 5.190980 7.519794 10.721699 14.920164 20.782406
2025-05-18 1.739198 2.908037 4.626153 7.272792 11.168576 16.598887 24.621720
2025-05-25 1.288719 2.370849 4.087646 6.916398 11.340636 17.846140 27.936928
2025-06-01 1.020087 2.046577 3.790279 6.838649 11.863323 19.596291 32.093065
2025-06-08 0.818067 1.782357 3.529036 6.754522 12.331630 21.274087 36.262590
2025-06-15 0.723492 1.691956 3.544475 7.125878 13.568026 24.249492 42.689670
2025-06-22 0.607479 1.528837 3.392576 7.166793 14.229559 26.335235 47.849714
2025-06-29 0.509613 1.378514 3.234330 7.163698 14.797949 28.297813 52.948522
2025-07-06 0.427890 1.242857 3.078297 7.134986 15.303607 30.180407 58.043855
2025-07-13 0.407343 1.249628 3.224634 7.733014 17.056325 34.410042 67.524589
2025-07-20 0.360691 1.180923 3.197931 7.979163 18.176663 37.639133 75.578423
2025-07-27 0.323454 1.128225 3.199983 8.290722 19.469470 41.311798 84.745379
2025-08-03 0.274959 1.029155 3.071272 8.289744 20.115607 43.811907 91.941924
2025-08-10 0.222057 0.899026 2.836725 8.003904 20.117299 45.051735 96.849327
2025-08-17 0.175101 0.770494 2.576761 7.610474 19.827669 45.672233 100.593387
2025-08-24 0.146854 0.695879 2.448725 7.523939 20.214610 47.693341 107.221661
2025-08-31 0.123137 0.628664 2.326717 7.431755 20.573526 49.678032 113.907748
2025-09-07 0.115239 0.621451 2.385698 7.835293 22.158373 54.391115 126.462466
2025-09-14 0.100055 0.577590 2.319216 7.879677 22.866597 57.250671 135.351199
2025-09-21 0.086098 0.533106 2.240501 7.876281 23.453398 59.884189 143.932242
2025-09-28 0.073701 0.490204 2.157017 7.845061 23.964056 62.382506 152.381548